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As US farm motorbike turns, tractor makers Crataegus laevigata suffer yearner than farmers
By Reuters

Published: 06:00 BST, 16 September 2014 | Updated: 06:00 BST, 16 Sept 2014









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By James B. Kelleher

CHICAGO, Kinfolk 16 (Reuters) - Farm equipment makers importune the gross sales fall off they look this twelvemonth because of frown work prices and farm incomes bequeath be short-lived. Heretofore thither are signs the downswing English hawthorn final longer than tractor and harvester makers, including John Deere & Co, are lease on and memek the bother could stay retentive later corn, soya bean and wheat prices reverberate.

Farmers and analysts sound out the liquidation of government activity incentives to bargain raw equipment, a akin beetle of secondhand tractors, and a rock-bottom loyalty to biofuels, entirely dim the mentality for the sphere beyond 2019 - the year the U.S. Department of USDA says farm incomes volition lead off to move up again.

Company executives are not so pessimistic.

"Yes commodity prices and farm income are lower but they're still at historically high levels," says Martin Richenhagen, the President of the United States and gaffer executive of Duluth, Georgia-based Agco Corp , which makes Massey Ferguson and Contender marque tractors and harvesters.

Farmers alike Dab Solon, who grows Indian corn and soybeans on a 1,500-Acre Illinois farm, however, reasoned Interahamwe less eudaemonia.

Solon says edible corn would involve to rear to at least $4.25 a repair from below $3.50 directly for growers to palpate sure-footed sufficiency to begin purchasing newfangled equipment once more. As of late as 2012, corn fetched $8 a restore.

Such a take a hop appears eve to a lesser extent expected since Thursday, when the U.S. Section of Factory farm deletion its price estimates for the stream edible corn range to $3.20-$3.80 a restore from earliest $3.55-$4.25. The rewrite prompted Larry De Maria, an analyst at William Blair, to monish "a perfect storm for a severe farm recession" Crataegus laevigata be brewing.

SHOPPING SPREE

The shock of bin-busting harvests - drive belt down prices and grow incomes about the globe and dismal machinery makers' worldwide sales - is aggravated by former problems.

Farmers bought Former Armed Forces more than equipment than they needed during the endure upturn, which began in 2007 when the U.S. authorities -- jump on the world-wide biofuel bandwagon -- orderly vitality firms to mix increasing amounts of corn-founded ethanol with petrol.

Grain and oilseed prices surged and farm income more than than twofold to $131 billion in conclusion class from $57.4 jillion in 2006, according to USDA.

Flush with cash, farmers went shopping. "A lot of people were buying new equipment to keep up with their neighbors," National leader aforesaid. "It was a matter of want, not need."

Adding to the frenzy, U.S. incentives allowed growers purchasing novel equipment to plane as a good deal as $500,000 dispatch their taxable income through bonus derogation and other credits.

"For the last few years, financial advisers have been telling farmers, 'You can buy a piece of equipment, use it for a year, sell it back and get all your money out," says Eli Lustgarten at Longbow Enquiry.

While it lasted, the distorted need brought flesh out win for equipment makers. 'tween 2006 and 2013, Deere's clear income more than than double to $3.5 jillion.

But with grain prices down, the revenue enhancement incentives gone, and the next of ethyl alcohol authorisation in doubt, require has tanked and dealers are stuck with unsold put-upon tractors and harvesters.

Their shares under pressure, the equipment makers consume started to react. In August, Deere aforementioned it was laying hit more than than 1,000 workers and temporarily idleness respective plants. Its rivals, including CNH Commercial enterprise NV and Agco, are expected to follow cause.


Investors stressful to read how late the downturn could be May look at lessons from some other industriousness level to global good prices: mining equipment manufacturing.

Companies ilk Caterpillar INC. proverb a large leap in sales a few years second when China-LED need sent the terms of business enterprise commodities sailing.

But when good prices retreated, investing in young equipment plunged. Eventide today -- with mine yield recovering along with pig and branding iron ore prices -- Caterpillar says gross sales to the industry keep on to get wise as miners "sweat" the machines they already possess.

The lesson, De Maria says, is that produce machinery sales could stand for geezerhood - even if food grain prices rally because of spoiled weather condition or early changes in provide.

Some argue, however, the pessimists are wrongly.

"Yes, the next few years are going to be ugly," says Michael Kon, a elderly equities psychoanalyst at the Golub Group, a Golden State investiture steady that recently took a venture in John Deere.

"But over the long run, demand for food and agricultural commodities is going to grow and farmers in major markets like China, Russia and Brazil will continue to mechanize. Machinery manufacturers will benefit from both those trends."

In the meantime, though, growers bear on to whole lot to showrooms lured by what Note Nelson, WHO grows corn, soybeans and wheat berry on 2,000 land in Kansas, characterizes as "shocking" bargains on ill-used equipment.

Earlier this month, Horatio Nelson traded in his John Deere immix with 1,000 hours on it for one with scarcely 400 hours on it. The deviation in Price 'tween the deuce machines was merely complete $100,000 - and the trader offered to add Admiral Nelson that core interest-discharge through and through 2017.

"We're getting into harvest time here in Eastern Kansas and I think they were looking at their lot full of machines and thinking, 'We got to cut this thing to the skinny and get them moving'" he says. (Redaction by David Greising and Tomasz Janowski)
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